The moving-target problem
Against a mover you can no longer aim at the target — by the time the bullet arrives, the target has walked out from under your bullet. You must aim at the point where target and bullet will meet. That offset is the lead, and computing and applying it under time is one of the hardest applied-marksmanship skills. Two things drive the lead: how fast the target moves across your line of sight, and how long your bullet is in the air (time of flight).
The two methods: trap vs. track
Trapping (ambush). You pick an aiming point ahead of the target, hold the rifle still on that point, and break the shot as the target walks into the lead — the target "runs into" your waiting bullet. The rifle is stationary at the moment of the break, which makes for a cleaner, more stable shot. It demands good timing and works best for targets moving at a predictable, steady pace along a predictable path. This is the preferred method for most precision moving shots because a still rifle is an accurate rifle.
Tracking (swinging). You match the target's movement with your reticle, swinging the rifle at the target's speed while maintaining the lead, and break the shot while still swinging — continuing the swing through the break (follow-through is essential or you'll stop the swing and shoot behind). Tracking adapts better to a target that changes speed or direction, but moving the rifle while pressing the trigger is harder to do precisely. Many shooters use a hybrid: track to establish the lead and timing, then effectively trap for the final break.
Estimating the lead
The lead is how far ahead of the target you aim. Conceptually: lead distance = target's speed across your line of sight × bullet time of flight. Then convert that linear lead into a reticle hold (mils or MOA) at the target's range.
A practical way to think in mils: figure the target's crossing speed in feet per second, multiply by the time of flight to get the lead in feet, then convert to mils at that range. Reference speeds worth memorizing: a slow walk ≈ 3 fps, a brisk walk ≈ 4–5 fps, a jog ≈ 7 fps, a run ≈ 10+ fps. Worked example: a target walking briskly (≈4.4 fps, full-value/perpendicular crossing) at 400 yards, with a time of flight of about 0.55 s, leads by 4.4 × 0.55 ≈ 2.4 feet ≈ 29 inches. At 400 yards 1 mil = 14.4 inches, so the lead ≈ 29 ÷ 14.4 ≈ 2 mils. The numbers grow fast with range (TOF climbs) and with target speed.
Two adjustments matter. Angle (value). Only motion across your line of sight counts. A target moving directly at or away from you needs no lead; a target quartering needs a partial (half-value-ish) lead, just like wind. Judge the crossing component. Speed estimation is the largest error source — practice reading pace (count the cadence of steps, time the target across a known gap) because a wrong speed is a wrong lead.
The break is everything
You can compute a perfect lead and still miss if the trigger break is rushed, because a flinch or a jerk on a moving-target shot throws you off the precise lead you established. The discipline: establish the correct lead, then break the shot with the same clean, surprise-ish press you'd use on a static target — and, for tracking, keep moving through the break. Stopping the rifle to "make sure" guarantees a shot behind the target. A mover rewards smoothness: smooth track or smooth trap, clean press, committed follow-through. Call the shot and watch the splash — moving-target leads are best refined empirically from where your rounds actually land relative to the target.