Paper is the real measure
Velocity data is a diagnostic; the target is the result. A load that puts rounds through the same hole at your intended distance is a good load regardless of what a chronograph would have said about it, and a load that scatters is a bad one no matter how flat its velocity curve looks. If you have to choose one source of truth, the target is the correct choice — which is precisely why developing without a chronograph is a legitimate method rather than a compromise.
Without velocity data your process becomes: run a charge ladder, look for the band where point of impact stabilises and groups tighten, confirm the candidate band with a larger batch on a separate day, and settle. That is a complete development process. The OCW approach in particular was designed around point of impact rather than velocity, and works without a chronograph by design.
Compensating for what you cannot measure
Two adjustments make chronograph-free development more reliable. First, shoot more rounds per step than you would otherwise, because you have removed one source of evidence and need the remaining one to be stronger. Small-sample noise is your main enemy and rounds on paper are the only antidote you have left.
Second, lean harder on point-of-impact stability across adjacent charges rather than on group size alone. Group size at a single charge is noisy; a band of three consecutive charges printing to the same place is a much harder pattern to produce by accident, and it is visible without any electronics.
You can also get an indirect read on velocity at distance. If you have access to a longer range, the elevation you actually need to dial at a known distance, compared with what your ballistic solver predicts, is a rough proxy for whether your true muzzle velocity is near what you assumed. It will not give you shot-to-shot spread, but it will tell you if your assumed velocity is badly wrong.
What you genuinely lose, and when to buy one
You lose shot-to-shot velocity spread, which means you cannot see the consistency problem that shows up as vertical dispersion at long range until you actually shoot at long range. You also lose the ability to true a ballistic solver properly, which matters as soon as you want reliable first-round hits at distance rather than a good group at 100.
That points at a clear threshold: if your shooting lives inside a few hundred yards, a chronograph is a nice-to-have and your money is better spent on components, optics or match fees. If you are working past that, where velocity spread turns into vertical misses and where a trued solver is the difference between a first-round hit and a spotting correction, it stops being optional.
The economics have also shifted. Modern compact doppler radar units removed most of the traditional annoyances — no downrange skyscreens to set up, no lighting sensitivity, no shooting your own chronograph — at a price that is real but no longer exotic. If you were put off chronographs by the older devices, the objection has largely gone away.